What It Means For Student Loans, The FAFSA And Tax Refunds
Key Points
Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate on November 3, and the new Congress won’t be sworn in until January 3, 2027. That leaves Republicans a short window of unified control to take action – and they have some pressing items that need to be addressed next month. Our breakdown of what the Democratic sweep means for student loans highlights what we expect will happen next year.
There is a critical must-pass item coming up: government funding. Lawmakers return today and have a December 11 deadline, and missing it would trigger a government shutdown that hits student loans and financial aid right before Christmas.
Some Republicans also want one last party-line bill before they lose power, which could touch the debt ceiling and taxes.
Federal funding expires after December 11, 2026. The stopgap law signed September 2 keeps agencies running at fiscal year 2026 levels until then. Congress has to pass full-year spending bills or another continuing resolution before that date. Until it does, Education Department programs run at last year’s funding levels.
House and Senate appropriators had been working toward a full-year deal, but that path is unclear. Another short-term continuing resolution looks like the most likely outcome. A full-year education bill matters for families because it sets money for Federal Work-Study, TRIO and Pell Grants, and the House version would end subsidized student loans to pay for a Pell Grant increase.
The politics cut both ways. Funding deadlines are one of the few checks Democrats will hold over President Trump next year, so Republicans have a reason to lock in longer-term funding now. Democrats have the opposite incentive, since a short deadline gives them leverage once they hold the gavels and pursue their Pell Grant and student loan agenda.
Key Dates For The Lame Duck Session And The 2027 Tax Season
| Date | What Happens | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 9, 2026 | Congress returns for the lame duck session | Republicans’ last weeks controlling both chambers |
| Dec. 11, 2026 | Stopgap government funding runs out | Shutdown starts without a new spending bill |
| Jan. 3, 2027 | New Congress is sworn in | Democrats take control of the House and Senate |
| Jan. 15, 2027 | Fourth-quarter estimated taxes due | Payments are still due during a shutdown |
| Late Jan. 2027 | IRS usually opens tax filing season | The 2026 season opened January 26 |
| As Soon As Feb. 2027 | Federal debt limit could be reached | Main driver of a third reconciliation bill |
Source: Congressional Research Service, IRS. The College Investor.
Federal student loan payments must continue due during a government shutdown, and Pell Grants and Direct Loans keep flowing. The Education Department pays for those programs through mandatory and carryover funding, so spring semester disbursements in January should go out on schedule. That’s what happened during the 43-day shutdown in fall 2025, when student loan payments and financial aid disbursements continued.
Student loan servicers are private contractors, so they stay open. They keep processing payments, deferments and income-driven repayment plan applications. Federal workers who stop getting paychecks can recertify their income to lower their student loan payment, which an unexpected benefit.
Work that needs an Education Department employee is what stops. That includes final PSLF discharges, Direct Consolidation Loan approvals and the Federal Student Aid ombudsman. In fall 2025, the department furloughed about 87% of its staff and laid off 466 employees during the shutdown. Its court-ordered income-driven repayment backlog reports were also delayed until after it reopened.
The FAFSA stays open, and processing is largely automated. Help desk support and issue resolution slow down, which matters because some state deadlines arrive fast. Texas has a January 15, 2027 priority date, according to our list of 2027-28 FAFSA deadlines.
A December shutdown would hit the IRS while it updates forms and tests systems for the 2027 tax filing season. During the October 2025 shutdown, the agency used leftover Inflation Reduction Act money to stay fully staffed for five business days. It then furloughed about 34,000 of its 74,000 employees and kept filing season preparation running as much as possible.
The cushion is smaller now. The fiscal 2026 spending deal cut the IRS budget to $11.2 billion and rescinded $11.7 billion of the roughly $20.7 billion left from the Inflation Reduction Act. The current stopgap protects what remains from another rescission. We haven’t seen a Treasury contingency plan for this deadline yet, so it’s unclear whether the IRS would use that money again. Our 2027 filing season overview covers what else changes this year.
Tax obligations don’t pause because the government shutdown. The fourth-quarter estimated payment is still due January 15, 2027. The last long shutdown didn’t push back the start of filing season either, and the IRS opened the 2026 season on January 26 as our IRS refund calendar shows.
The closest precedent began December 22, 2018, and lasted 35 days. The IRS was shut down, but the Education Department wasn’t, because its fiscal 2019 funding had already passed. FAFSA processing and Pell Grant payments ran normally that winter. This time both agencies run on the same stopgap, so both would close together.
The IRS still opened filing season on January 28, 2019 and paid refunds, after earlier shutdown plans had held them. It recalled about 46,000 employees to work without pay. Service suffered anyway, and the IRS answered only 48% of calls in the first week of filing season, according to the National Taxpayer Advocate’s report.
That backlog is one reason some tax refunds run late after a shutdown.
It’s possible, but the votes and the calendar are tight. Reconciliation lets a bill pass the Senate with a simple majority, and Republicans used it in 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) that created RAP and capped Parent PLUS borrowing. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has called another reconciliation bill difficult, and he can lose only three Republican votes.
Ideas floated so far include Iran war funding, a debt limit increase, voting restrictions, and cryptocurrency policy. The debt limit drives most of it. Raising the limit through the end of President Trump’s term would keep Democrats from using it as leverage in 2027, and the limit could be reached as soon as February. Our coverage explains what happens when the U.S. hits the debt ceiling.
The process is complicated. The House-passed budget resolution includes no tax instructions, so the Senate would need to rewrite it and send it back. Attendance is another headwind, since retiring and defeated members may not stay through December. Tax options that fit reconciliation rules include extending expiring provisions, gambling losses, digital assets and retirement savings.
It’s unclear which, if any, would make the cut, so plan your 2026 return around the deductions already in law.
No student loan proposals are part of the reconciliation talk. The 2025 law already made the big changes, and the current repayment plan options stay in place.
No. Federal student loan servicers are contractors and stay open during a shutdown, so payments remain due. Missed payments can still be reported to credit bureaus during a shutdown.
A short shutdown probably wouldn’t, since the IRS usually opens filing season in late January. A long one could slow phone help and correspondence, as it did in 2019. Refunds that claim the Earned Income Tax Credit are held until mid-February under the PATH Act refund rules.
Yes. Pell Grants and Direct Loans are funded outside annual appropriations, so they kept disbursing during the 2025 shutdown. Delays are more likely for problems that need Education Department staff to resolve.
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