A recent report by Gusto senior economist Nich Tremper analyzing administrative payroll data indicates a a 64% increase from 2019 to 2026 in retirement plans by small businesses defined as organizations with 2-99 employees. Cerulli reports that 92% of defined contribution plans will be in the micro market by 2029, and total plans will surpass one million by 2030. Currently, 42 million people participate in the gig economy, with one in ten relying on it as their primary source of income.

While the convergence of wealth and retirement at the workplace and eventually all benefits is reshaping the DC industry, the growth of retirement plans by these smaller businesses, many employing hourly workers, will also be a major factor in redefining how advisors and providers approach retirement plans at work.

The numbers are startling. Just 19% of small businesses, which include 40 million organizations according to Gusto, offered a retirement plan in 2019, which increased to 31% in 2026. Though participation rates for hourly workers are now at 38%, up from 22% seven years ago, they lag behind salaried employees at 73%. Tremper claims the growth is not due entirely to government mandates, but those with them saw a dramatic increase in plan growth. Imagine if there is a federal mandate.

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Who will sell and serve the potential tsunami of small retirement plans?

Doubtful that the current group of just over 10,000 retirement plan advisors will be interested, as fees are low and work as well as liability are high. Perhaps some will deploy pooled employer plans, each of which must be sold separately. The cross-selling results by RPA firms owned by benefit brokers whose clients are generally smaller have been mixed.

More of the 275,000 wealth advisors are interested in DC plans, mainly to gain new financial planning and wealth clients and to leverage relationships with existing clients, as are some broker-dealers eager to get their reps interested in the 401(k) market. But fees and profit margins are higher for wealth services, and with the aging of financial advisors, with over 35% expected to retire over the next 10 years, many are not interested in learning and developing a new line of business.

Larger asset managers have outsized wealth-wholesaling forces, but none have figured out how to incentivize them to include DC plans in their pitches to wealth advisors. Because of data issues, it is hard to pay them, while some firms have decided not to – these wholesalers carry many services and products, so fitting in DC plans can be a challenge

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Doubtful that benefit or P&C brokers, insurance reps at independent marketing organizations or CPAs will have a meaningful impact on this market for various reasons.

So far, payroll providers like ADP, Paychex and Gusto, which mostly cross-sell and fintechs like Vestwell, Human Interest, Betterment and 401Go, many of which partner with payroll companies, have benefited from the surge in new plans by smaller businesses. While Human Interest is reported to be significantly increasing its sales force, the fintechs rely on third parties that already have relationships with small businesses for distribution.

Ted Benna claims the current 401(k) structure is too complicated, touting a much different approach while record keeping technology has hindered efficiencies though FIS has recently launched cloud-based versions of Relius and Omni to address these issues incorporating over 100 third party applications. Current big-name record keepers still struggle to profitably sell and service start-up and small plans

Maslov said that when the only tool you have is a hammer, the whole world looks like a nail.

It’s clear that more small businesses are and will be offering retirement plans, while gig workers will be interested through firms like Uber and DoorDash. There is a huge opportunity, but as currently constructed, most advisors, providers and asset managers are not properly aligned. Those that can leverage current client relationships and the workplace to offer financial planning and employee benefits, and uncover hidden wealth with retirement plans as the Trojan horse, will thrive. But changing business models that are successful for incumbents is hard, as Harvard professor Clayton Christensen explained in his seminal book, The Innovator’s Dilemma.

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