Americans’ confidence in higher education slipped to 38% this year, down from 42% in 2025, according to the new Lumina Foundation-Gallup Confidence in Higher Education survey. The drop erases most of the modest recovery colleges saw last year.

The survey, conducted in June 2026, found that 38% of U.S. adults have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in higher education, 37% have “some,” and 25% have “very little” or none. When Gallup first asked the question in 2015, 57% of Americans expressed strong confidence.

The Numbers

This year’s decline came almost entirely from Democrats. Just 50% of Democrats now express confidence in higher education, a new low for the group and down from 61% last year. Republicans (23%) and independents (39%) held roughly steady.

The long-term erosion tells a different story. Since 2015, confidence has fallen 33% among Republicans, 18% among Democrats, and 9% among independents.

Education level matters too, but not the way you might expect. Postgraduates (49%) drive nearly all of the degree-holder advantage. Americans with only a bachelor’s degree (36%) are now about as skeptical as those without a degree (35%).

Why Confidence In Higher Ed Is Falling

Among Americans who lack confidence in higher education, three reasons dominate: perceived political agendas on campus (31%), the high cost of college (30%), and colleges failing to prepare students for the workforce (25%).

Cost mentions rose from last year, while complaints about politics and workforce preparation declined. Smaller shares pointed to poor administration, poor quality of education, and Trump administration interference in higher education (8% each). For the first time, artificial intelligence appeared as a reason, cited by 2% of respondents.

On the flip side, Americans who remain confident credit colleges with training students in critical thinking (33%), making them informed and knowledgeable (30%), and opening better job opportunities (19%).

The AI Question

A new question this year asked whether AI will change the value of a college degree over the next five years. The verdict was pessimistic: 46% expect degrees to become less important, more than double the 20% who expect them to become more important. Another 33% expect no change.

Skepticism runs deepest among those already down on higher education. Of Americans who lack confidence in colleges, 64% believe AI will make degrees less important.

The public’s instinct isn’t baseless. A Stanford study found entry-level software jobs down nearly 20% as AI reshapes hiring for college grads, and more students are picking work over college as AI rewrites career plans for those who do enroll.

How This Connects

Public perception and financial reality are moving in different directions. The College Board’s Education Pays 2026 report confirmed that a degree still delivers a substantial earnings premium over a high school diploma. And New America’s Varying Degrees survey found that roughly 75% of Americans still call higher education a good investment, even as satisfaction with the institution itself sags. A separate study found 90% of college graduates had a good experience, but just 70% said their degree was worth the cost.

Cost concerns are grounded in real numbers too: Americans owe over $1.8 trillion in student loan debt, and one analysis projects the class of 2026 will borrow $43,500 for a bachelor’s degree. For families weighing the decision, the question is less about confidence in institutions and more about whether college is worth it — a math problem you can run with a college ROI calculator.

The pattern is consistent: Americans still believe in the degree more than they believe in the institutions granting it.

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